The need for reasoned voices

At this critical moment in our country history, when we need leadership most– we seem to be lacking leadership at the federal, state and local levels. The voices we hear are from: ideologues, toadies for special interest groups of all persuasions, or the misinformed public shouting at the top of their voices.

It seems to be that some governors (NY, NJ, CA) have taken the bull by the horn and are staking their reputation and futures on bringing creative solutions to their problems and equally spreading the sacrifice. We, Americans, are not afraid to sacrifice for the greater good. Others like in WI are bent on taking us back to an age of darkness and inequality by ascribing our ills to unions -- Wake up governor; have you heard of Goldman Sachs? Wall Street melt down?  They are equally culpable for your deficit.

We cannot ascribe the word leadership to the Republican membership in the House of Representatives; or the White House – the managers of our fiscal health.

We just had a report of from a joint commission which detailed the need for cuts in the entitlement and defense areas to get our house in order. The questions which need to be asked from this President are:  When will you lead? When will you be true to your motto – ‘Yes we can’?

We need to cut the uncontrolled growth of our government and paradoxically, invest in our future… ‘Yes, we can’ has given way to ‘You go first’.

Expecting anything from the divided House of Representatives is wasting our time and hoping for Obama to become a leader may be a vain hope.

I know little of Chris Littleton of Ohio, but he does seem to have a reasoned demeanor about him and he is an influential, voice in the Tea Party... Mr. President how about inviting him for a frank dialog? Maybe, we begin the process of coalescing this country to speak with a focused voice on how to solve our problems and in the process, leave a legacy of hope to our grandchildren.

Will the Dude Abide

The first paragraph in Maureen Dowd’s column this past Sunday, October 31^st, titled “Can the Dude Abide?”summarizes, as only she can, the state of the current Obama presidency.

“Barack Obama became president by brilliantly telling his own story. To stay president, he will need to show he can understand our story.”

The black woman in the recent town hall gave a face to the angst and disappointment that we as Americans feel about the current state of affairs. In that brilliant opening paragraph, Maureen succinctly outlines the strategy for the remaining time that Obama has; to lead us out the current morass that we find ourselves.

If Obama does what Maureen suggests, he will assuage our angst. In the process, Obama will take the momentum out of the fringe right and perhaps earn a second term and a place in the annals of history – one not beside Jimmy Carter.

Social Media and the disintermediation of job boards

Not too long ago, the Internet, monster.com, and careerbuilder.com created a significant amount of displacement amongst the contingency based employment companies. To survive and in some case to thrive, the contingency firms moved into the contract, consulting, or temporary placement market place. They were pushed into that business on two accounts: One, the new on-line job boards made it very attractive to gain candidates without having to having to pay heavy commissions. The other factor is that companies have began to heed Charles Handy advice in his book  “The Age of Reason” in which he proposes that companies would be moving towards a variable work force model – ramp up for a project; outsource non-core skills – keep fixed cost low and only keep the core skills in-house.

What goes around comes around.

Monster.com, careeerbuilder.com et al are seeing their best days behind them. With the explosion of social media – specifically, linkedin.com which is close to going IPO; Twitter and Facebook, the cost of posting new jobs on these sites is nominal and in some cases zero; as recruiters will broadcast their needs to their network; or initiate discussions around a job description in one of the many groups.

It would be interesting to get some feed back from the recruiters as to the quality of the candidates that they receive as opposed to the volume.

From personal experience, I have made some significant contacts within my network in the recruiting front; but at the end of the day, one always asks the question: Does he or she really understand my brand and value? And can they market me properly?  These questions are borne out the fact we have multiple channel of communication and most of the information, although intuitive in nature, comes from non-verbal channels.

The dye is cast. Unless, the job boards sites re-invent themselves - My advice to investors is to divest of any pure job board stock and look at social media stock as an alternative investment.

Game; Set; Match

This Sunday the New York Times had a picture on the front page that was heart breaking. It was a picture of a soldier in camouflage uniform, sitting on the floor in a lit, antiseptic corridor. The soldier had his baby cradled in his lap; his wife next to him. He was being deployed to Afghan.

The anguish in that young family tugged at the heart strings of most red blooded Americans.  I say most Americans because I am not sure about neo-cons; as they have assiduously sought deferment from any conflicts that would put them in harm’s way; yet, the same neo-cons have no compunction of putting our precious youth in the same position they cower from.

Associated stories about Afghanistan in the first section of the NY Times clearly harkened back to Vietnam; the corruption of the government and the lack of a clear exit strategy are all reminiscent of Vietnam.

The temerity of Karzai to suggest that he is willing to negotiate with the Taliban, while we send our young men into their line of fire is beyond belief and words.

Our government cannot allow this arrogance to stand!

We are asking that young man and his family to endure uncertainty; possibly ask him to make the ultimate sacrifice – give his life – For what?  I for one do not want that young child being raised without her father.  To quote the refrain from Bruce Springsteen’s song Last to die –

 
Who'll be the last to die for a mistake
The last to die for a mistake
Whose blood will spill, whose heart will break
Who'll be the last to die for a mistake

The time has come for President Obama to grow big ones; tell General Petreaus and the other Generals in the Pentagon that it is over – get us out of Afghanistan and Iraq as quickly as possible. The issue is not up for debate. It is an executive order to be carried out with all deliberate speed.

In the immortal works of George Aiken, the old curmudgeon former senator from Vermont: “Declare a victory and get out”.

Save our youth and our treasury to right our economy and set us on a road to a bright future.

We have a vast array of unmanned weapons. We can forewarn Karzai and his Taliban buddies that while they can run; they can’t hide.

We should amend the George Aiken’s quote: Declare a victory; get out and tell the Taliban and those who wish us harm; to look up into the blue sky – they may see a surprise package coming.

Studybynet.com* Part Deux

About 10 years ago, the NY Times Sunday magazine had an article that heralded a new electronic container for books; the printed page was passé.  Timing is everything in life.  The author, like us, was right on target, but way ahead of his time.

Today, Amazon, Barnes and Nobles and Sony have book readers; the first two seem to be market leaders in this space.  Most recently, the 800 lbs gorilla has entered the fray – Apple – with the iPad.  I think that Apple places the concept of electronic containers for books in a new league. The issue is no longer will it succeed, but who will be number two.

There is an ancillary benefit from the acceptance of the new electronic container for the printed word – magazines and newspapers.

Most recently, the NY Times indicated that Conde Naste would be re-introducing Gourmet Magazine in an electronic format.  The NY Times now has the “Timesreader 2.0” that delivers the newspaper in an electronic format to your PC.  I am sure that an iPad version is not too far behind.

I own the Nook (B&N) and I subscribe, or buy issues of, magazines of interest downloaded directly into the Nook.

As a matter of fact, there has been an extensive decline in readership and advertising in magazines.  If you look at the number of pages for Times or Newsweek today and compare the number of pages printed in 1999, it is 30% to 40% less printed (advertising) pages.  This has certainly eroded the profitability and viability of many magazines.

My predictions:

1. Magazines that have an acerbic, unapologetic point of view, great writing such as the Economist or Rolling Stone will find resurgence in readership and subscription… Maybe, Conde Naste’s Gourmet magazine will be on that list. The others will lumber along and slowly fade away.
2. Alan, John – what will be the next electronic media phase?  The market for textbooks that we foresaw 10 years ago is still there.  The access and the plan to gain that market share have changed. but the market still remains untapped and it is measured in the billions.  Someone will get it.

If my predictions don’t come true, I can always blame the stars.

 * Back in late 1999, I and two partners envisioned the e-book business becoming a viable business.  We built a business plan targeted at college students; textbooks and a PC reader – a bit early and a few dollars short in raising funds; we now find ourselves looking wistfully into the rear view mirror.

A postscript

This is the moment in history in which our president can make his mark…

As I stated in an earlier blog and Joe Scarborough repeated it this morning – We need a generational call to get us beyond our addiction to oil and achieve energy independence within this decade.

In JFK’s landmark speech, he called for us to place men in the moon and bring then back safely. One of my brother’s in law reminded me of a portion of the text which is very applicable now.  JFK said – “No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind or more important for the long-range exploration of space; and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish." These words ring true today as they did 40 plus years ago as we attempt to wean ourselves from the foreign oil dependency.

Much of the economic benefits of the space race were in the form of derivatives and connection between jobs, economic benefits were demonstrable but tenuous at best.

The connection of jobs by the unleashing; the prodding of the national will; innovative spirit to search for the most efficient use carbon based fuels; renewable energy and overall independence from foreign oil is far more direct.

We need jobs. The most optimistic economic forecasts call for around 8 percent unemployment by the end of 2011. I don’t think that 8 percent unemployment is a statistics that any one wants to run on for re-election.

We hear a lot about the calm, academic demeanor of the president.

It is true that his presidency has had a very short honeymoon.

The president has faced one crisis after the other. Yet, each of these crises has provided him an opportunity to define his legacy and path for this country.  President Obama should take to heart the last stanza of Robert Frost –“The road not taken”:

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

Mr. President – lead us down that road to a brighter future.…

What next

For some time, I have believed, however erroneous, that you could classify economic ideology into two main camps: One based on John Maynard Keynes which suggests that government spending is the cure for deep recessions or depressions to make up for the lack of consumer spending and confidence. The other camp, most recently popularized by Arthur Laffer, suggests that you cut taxes to stimulate spending and thus pull yourself from the depths of recession or economic depression.

As we look at Europe and our predicament, we may come to the conclusion that neither of the above solutions is viable or sustainable over any length of time without creating major social and economic stress to your society and the way of live that we have come to enjoy.

It has been recently suggested by an analyst at Pimco, that the US national debt will top 13 trillion dollar dollars within the next few months and that the Keynesian theory of spending ourselves out of economic doldrums will not work. The same can be said for the Laffer curve ‘trickle down economics’.

At 13 trillion dollar debt, we are at parity with our GDP… The question I have is, are we not becoming the next Bernard Madoff running an even bigger Ponzi scheme, selling treasury bills to pay the interest on the debt without adding to our national economy.

If any of the above resembles the true state of our economy, we are in deep trouble. The chickens are coming home to roost.

I am interested in your comments.