Game; Set; Match

This Sunday the New York Times had a picture on the front page that was heart breaking. It was a picture of a soldier in camouflage uniform, sitting on the floor in a lit, antiseptic corridor. The soldier had his baby cradled in his lap; his wife next to him. He was being deployed to Afghan.

The anguish in that young family tugged at the heart strings of most red blooded Americans.  I say most Americans because I am not sure about neo-cons; as they have assiduously sought deferment from any conflicts that would put them in harm’s way; yet, the same neo-cons have no compunction of putting our precious youth in the same position they cower from.

Associated stories about Afghanistan in the first section of the NY Times clearly harkened back to Vietnam; the corruption of the government and the lack of a clear exit strategy are all reminiscent of Vietnam.

The temerity of Karzai to suggest that he is willing to negotiate with the Taliban, while we send our young men into their line of fire is beyond belief and words.

Our government cannot allow this arrogance to stand!

We are asking that young man and his family to endure uncertainty; possibly ask him to make the ultimate sacrifice – give his life – For what?  I for one do not want that young child being raised without her father.  To quote the refrain from Bruce Springsteen’s song Last to die –

 
Who'll be the last to die for a mistake
The last to die for a mistake
Whose blood will spill, whose heart will break
Who'll be the last to die for a mistake

The time has come for President Obama to grow big ones; tell General Petreaus and the other Generals in the Pentagon that it is over – get us out of Afghanistan and Iraq as quickly as possible. The issue is not up for debate. It is an executive order to be carried out with all deliberate speed.

In the immortal works of George Aiken, the old curmudgeon former senator from Vermont: “Declare a victory and get out”.

Save our youth and our treasury to right our economy and set us on a road to a bright future.

We have a vast array of unmanned weapons. We can forewarn Karzai and his Taliban buddies that while they can run; they can’t hide.

We should amend the George Aiken’s quote: Declare a victory; get out and tell the Taliban and those who wish us harm; to look up into the blue sky – they may see a surprise package coming.

Studybynet.com* Part Deux

About 10 years ago, the NY Times Sunday magazine had an article that heralded a new electronic container for books; the printed page was passé.  Timing is everything in life.  The author, like us, was right on target, but way ahead of his time.

Today, Amazon, Barnes and Nobles and Sony have book readers; the first two seem to be market leaders in this space.  Most recently, the 800 lbs gorilla has entered the fray – Apple – with the iPad.  I think that Apple places the concept of electronic containers for books in a new league. The issue is no longer will it succeed, but who will be number two.

There is an ancillary benefit from the acceptance of the new electronic container for the printed word – magazines and newspapers.

Most recently, the NY Times indicated that Conde Naste would be re-introducing Gourmet Magazine in an electronic format.  The NY Times now has the “Timesreader 2.0” that delivers the newspaper in an electronic format to your PC.  I am sure that an iPad version is not too far behind.

I own the Nook (B&N) and I subscribe, or buy issues of, magazines of interest downloaded directly into the Nook.

As a matter of fact, there has been an extensive decline in readership and advertising in magazines.  If you look at the number of pages for Times or Newsweek today and compare the number of pages printed in 1999, it is 30% to 40% less printed (advertising) pages.  This has certainly eroded the profitability and viability of many magazines.

My predictions:

1. Magazines that have an acerbic, unapologetic point of view, great writing such as the Economist or Rolling Stone will find resurgence in readership and subscription… Maybe, Conde Naste’s Gourmet magazine will be on that list. The others will lumber along and slowly fade away.
2. Alan, John – what will be the next electronic media phase?  The market for textbooks that we foresaw 10 years ago is still there.  The access and the plan to gain that market share have changed. but the market still remains untapped and it is measured in the billions.  Someone will get it.

If my predictions don’t come true, I can always blame the stars.

 * Back in late 1999, I and two partners envisioned the e-book business becoming a viable business.  We built a business plan targeted at college students; textbooks and a PC reader – a bit early and a few dollars short in raising funds; we now find ourselves looking wistfully into the rear view mirror.

A postscript

This is the moment in history in which our president can make his mark…

As I stated in an earlier blog and Joe Scarborough repeated it this morning – We need a generational call to get us beyond our addiction to oil and achieve energy independence within this decade.

In JFK’s landmark speech, he called for us to place men in the moon and bring then back safely. One of my brother’s in law reminded me of a portion of the text which is very applicable now.  JFK said – “No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind or more important for the long-range exploration of space; and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish." These words ring true today as they did 40 plus years ago as we attempt to wean ourselves from the foreign oil dependency.

Much of the economic benefits of the space race were in the form of derivatives and connection between jobs, economic benefits were demonstrable but tenuous at best.

The connection of jobs by the unleashing; the prodding of the national will; innovative spirit to search for the most efficient use carbon based fuels; renewable energy and overall independence from foreign oil is far more direct.

We need jobs. The most optimistic economic forecasts call for around 8 percent unemployment by the end of 2011. I don’t think that 8 percent unemployment is a statistics that any one wants to run on for re-election.

We hear a lot about the calm, academic demeanor of the president.

It is true that his presidency has had a very short honeymoon.

The president has faced one crisis after the other. Yet, each of these crises has provided him an opportunity to define his legacy and path for this country.  President Obama should take to heart the last stanza of Robert Frost –“The road not taken”:

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

Mr. President – lead us down that road to a brighter future.…

What next

For some time, I have believed, however erroneous, that you could classify economic ideology into two main camps: One based on John Maynard Keynes which suggests that government spending is the cure for deep recessions or depressions to make up for the lack of consumer spending and confidence. The other camp, most recently popularized by Arthur Laffer, suggests that you cut taxes to stimulate spending and thus pull yourself from the depths of recession or economic depression.

As we look at Europe and our predicament, we may come to the conclusion that neither of the above solutions is viable or sustainable over any length of time without creating major social and economic stress to your society and the way of live that we have come to enjoy.

It has been recently suggested by an analyst at Pimco, that the US national debt will top 13 trillion dollar dollars within the next few months and that the Keynesian theory of spending ourselves out of economic doldrums will not work. The same can be said for the Laffer curve ‘trickle down economics’.

At 13 trillion dollar debt, we are at parity with our GDP… The question I have is, are we not becoming the next Bernard Madoff running an even bigger Ponzi scheme, selling treasury bills to pay the interest on the debt without adding to our national economy.

If any of the above resembles the true state of our economy, we are in deep trouble. The chickens are coming home to roost.

I am interested in your comments.

An open letter to Obama

Dear Mr. President

It is clear that you have inherited a huge mess. After eight years of neglect; and twenty plus years of excesses, the “chickens have come home to roost” in the first months of your presidency.  Much like Lincoln, you have not been afforded a honeymoon, or a congress consisting of great minds.  Instead, you have a House and Senate filled with demagogues.

Circumstance may deem you to be a one term president, but, circumstances cannot prevent you from becoming a great president - one for the ages.

Most recently, or at least within my life time, JFK left a legacy that is to be envied.  Much of that legacy fulfilled after his death; nevertheless, he set the direction for others to follow and his vision was fulfilled.  The Civil Rights bill did not pass during his tenure; nor did he see man walk on the moon, but he set those paths for these great goals to be accomplished.  His words are remembered by many – “Ask not what your country can do for you….”; ‘Ich bin ein Berliner”.  Words and speeches that evoked the emotions of the crowds and nation; but in the end, proved to be ephemeral.  In my opinion, his most memorable speech was the one in which he galvanized the nation to place men on the moon and safely return them to earth. Every young kid wanted to be an engineer. The derivative innovations from the moon program propelled an era of commercial prosperity; innovation unrivaled in the world and outlasted the moon program. Every time, we use an electronic device today, we can trace some genealogy to moon program.

It is now your turn to galvanize us.  You cannot galvanize the American populous by talking about health care; Afghanistan, Iraq or regulating Wall Street. These are things we hired you to do.   You need give us a grander vision; goals that are within our grasp, but will require our collective will to achieve – An alternative, renewable energy source – The greening of America - No more oil spills; No more acid rain; No more miners dying in mines or from black lung disease.

My best wishes for your continued success.

Your supporter,

Bob DaSilva

Trizetto - The health Insurers ERP

A couple of weeks ago, I blogged about the need for health care insurers to look at current convergence of events (Health care reform and ICD-10 EDI5010), as an opportunity to re-evaluate their entire portfolio of disjointed applications/systems and adopt a strategically integrated solution.

I am bullish on Trizetto. I believe that Trizetto has the opportunity to become that first tier ERP system for the health insurance vertical, much like SAP, Peoplesoft and JDE are for most other verticals. Trizetto has the product set and the backing of some of the BCBS companies - some of the pieces of the puzzle.

The next step for Trizetto is to expand their footprint in a significant way before the market overtakes them. One possibility is to be acquired and, as I previously suggested, Microsoft would be a great suitor, as would DELL.  DELL has acquired Perot systems who is deeply entrenched in the health insurance vertical and would be a great asset in expanding Trizetto's reach.

The health insurance group is like the sleeping manufacturing organizations of the 80's.  In the 90's, they woke up to learn that their lunch had been eaten by the Japanese.  Some, like the U.S. automotive industry, continued in their slumber until recently.  The words for success are efficiency (cost reduction) and quality. Those who can achieve both, like Harley Davidson, will see their stock and market share soar.

The health insurers have yet to learn about the concept of 'discontinuous innovation' - doing something new; as opposed to doing the same thing under different guises.

Heath insurers, much like manufacturers; can get leg up on efficiency and quality by embracing the demands of the marketplace to change in a fundamental way.

Barnes and Noble -- Nook Lessons not yet learned.

Last fall, prior to the commercial availability of Nook, I went on-line and put in my order.  I was happy to learn that it had a strong technology underpinning and I was appreciative of the fact that it was software based and not hardware dependant; making upgrades and adding functionality easier.

I was also pleased to know that Adobe was the major force behind the operating system and that a vast array of PDF files would be at my disposal.   My library would reflect my needs and tastes and I imagined the experience would be like entering a virtual giant bookstore.

Sadly, my experience, thus far, with the B&N Nook has been less than stellar.

Mr. William Lynch, CEO of B&N, should read up on the Beta – VHS duel of the 80’s - just a reminder of the bottom line.   It was not technology that decided the winner; it was the availability of content.  CONTENT rules.  I understand that my tastes should not drive the content acquisition strategy of B&N, but their acquisitions should be broad enough to include my tastes.

Two months ago, after listening to a Charles Rose program, I asked B&N about the possibility of getting a book from Jim Collins “How the Mighty Fail”.   I was told by their crack customer service person that I should to contact, and hound, the publisher of that book for the digital rights.  I did and a few weeks later I was told by a member of Jim Collins’ staff, that he just signed the contract for the digital rights for this book… I am still waiting…

Michael Lewis’  “The Big Short”, currently on the NYT best seller list, cannot be downloaded to the Nook (I checked and it is available for the Kindle).   My intellectual quest is to better understand the process by which companies and the market fail to meet their goals.  In the process, build a framework that I can use in my professional life.

Mr. Lynch better understand that his competition (Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs) are icons and are not likely to give up easily. The iPad and Jobs’ marketing genius make it is obvious that Mr.  Lynch’s lunch is in serious jeopardy.  I am sure that Jeff Bezos understands that Amazon has far greater competition from in his core business (from the iPad – not the Nook) and will aggressively move to adjust and compete.

Mr. Lynch, here are some unsolicited bits of advice: One-aggressively advertise in a wider range of venues – Take a page from Amazon and the NYT book section.  Two-have a tighter correlation of your bonus structure to the acquisition of content.  

Here’s my 2 cents – people who buy electronic readers are people who enjoy future technology, get energized by new and exciting things and people who are going forward.  They want to read the new and exciting offerings like those listed on the NYT best seller list.  Get on board B&N!